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张亚飞,张松航,邓志宇,等. 基于层次分析灰色定权聚类的煤层气开发甜点预测方法−以柿庄北区块为例[J]. 煤炭科学技术,2024,52(5):166−175. DOI: 10.12438/cst.2023-0708
引用本文: 张亚飞,张松航,邓志宇,等. 基于层次分析灰色定权聚类的煤层气开发甜点预测方法−以柿庄北区块为例[J]. 煤炭科学技术,2024,52(5):166−175. DOI: 10.12438/cst.2023-0708
ZHANG Yafei,ZHANG Songhang,DENG Zhiyu,et al. A prediction method for coalbed methane development sweet spots based on hierarchical analysis and grey fixed-weight clustering: taking Shizhuangbei block as an example[J]. Coal Science and Technology,2024,52(5):166−175. DOI: 10.12438/cst.2023-0708
Citation: ZHANG Yafei,ZHANG Songhang,DENG Zhiyu,et al. A prediction method for coalbed methane development sweet spots based on hierarchical analysis and grey fixed-weight clustering: taking Shizhuangbei block as an example[J]. Coal Science and Technology,2024,52(5):166−175. DOI: 10.12438/cst.2023-0708

基于层次分析灰色定权聚类的煤层气开发甜点预测方法以柿庄北区块为例

A prediction method for coalbed methane development sweet spots based on hierarchical analysis and grey fixed-weight clustering: taking Shizhuangbei block as an example

  • 摘要: 随着煤层气产业的发展以及非常规油气勘探开发一体化的要求,当前煤层气的勘查评价工作逐渐由勘探选区向开发甜点选区推进。然而,受限于勘探开发阶段或资料占有程度,当前多数的选区评价体系对煤储层的可改性和煤层气的可采性考虑不足,在指导开发区井位优选或加密井方面效果不佳。基于沁水盆地柿庄北区块100余口煤层气参数井和开发井资料,分析区内3号煤层煤层气开发的资源条件、储层可改造性和煤层气可采性,采用层次分析和灰色定权聚类方法构建评价模型,评价了煤层气开发甜点区,为区内新井和加密井的部署提供依据。评价模型以煤层含气量、煤厚反映煤层气资源条件;综合考虑地应力环境和岩石力学性质,构建储层综合可改造性参数,评价储层可改造性;使用原始结构煤和碎裂煤占比、临储比和储层原始渗透率反映煤层气的可采性。每个参数采用word聚类方法分级,每个点位(每口井)计算出综合优度并排序,最终划分出煤层气开发甜点区。评价结果表明,研究区中部综合优度大于65的地区为进一步开展开发工作的甜点区。

     

    Abstract: With the development of the coalbed methane industry and the requirements for the integration of unconventional resource exploration and development, the current exploration of coalbed methane is gradually advancing from the favorable area stage to the sweet spot stage. However, limited by the stage of exploration and development or the degree of data possession, most of the current area selection evaluation systems do not take into account the fracability of coal reservoir and the recoverability of coalbed methane. Evaluation results are not effective in guiding development well location selection or infill wells. Based on the data of more than 100 coalbed methane parameter wells and development wells, this paper analyzes the resource conditions, reservoir fracturing improvement and coalbed methane recoverability of the No.3 coalbed methane development in Shizhuangbei Block, Qinshui Basin. An evaluation model was built with the gray fixed weight clustering method, and the sweet spot of ​​the coalbed methane project was evaluated, in an effort to provide a basis for the deployment of new wells and infill wells in the block. It was used coal seam gas content and coal thickness to reflect coal bed methane resource conditions; it was comprehensively considered the in-situ stress environment and rock mechanical properties to construct the reservoir fracability parameter, and then evaluates reservoir fracturing improvement; it was used the proportion of original structure coal and fragmented coal , temporary-reservoir ratio and original reservoir permeability to reflect the recoverability of coalbed methane. Each parameter is graded by the word clustering method, and the comprehensive goodness of each point (each well) is calculated and sorted, and finally the sweet spot for coalbed methane development is divided. The evaluation results show that the central part with the comprehensive goodness value >65 is the sweet spot for further development in the study area.

     

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