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时间卷积长短时记忆网络煤矿平硐变形多步预测

Multi-step prediction of coal mine adit deformation based on time convolutional long short-term memory

  • 摘要: 煤矿主平硐易受到外界因素的干扰,对其变形进行监测和预测十分重要。在光纤光栅监测平硐变形工程应用的基础上,提出了集成经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, EEMD)的时间卷积网络 (Temporal Convolutional Network, TCN)结合长短时记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term -Memory Network,LSTM)的EEMD-TCN-LSTM平硐变形多步预测模型。首先,通过集成经验模态分解方法将包含有噪声的监测数据分解成若干本征模态函数(Intrinsic Mode Functions, IMF)分量。然后,计算IMF分量的模糊熵并选择有效IMF分量。最后,对不同有效分量序列利用TCN网络提取长时间维度特征,利用LSTM网络捕获非线性特征,叠加各分量预测结果。在预测模型的训练过程中采用多输出策略的多步预测方法,输出为未来多个时刻的光纤监测值。在不同光纤光栅传感器的监测数据上进行试验,结果表明:通过EEMD分解结合模糊熵法处理光纤监测数据,能在保留平硐变形信息的同时,过滤掉更多的噪声。与已有方法相比,预测方法在单步预测时,其评价指标决定系数 (Coefficient of determination, R2)可达到0.99,平方根误差 (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)和平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error, MAE)分别降低3.0%~10.0%和5.0%~20.0%,预测结果更准确。多输出策略下预测方法超前三步预测的R2平均为0.95,应变计的RMSE和MAE值至少降低了75.0%和31.5%,位移计的RMSE和MAE值至少降低了50.0%和66.7%,压力计的RMSE和MAE值至少降低了85.7%和62.3%,误差积累最低。集成经验模态分解的TCN-LSTM平硐变形多步预测方法,能够为巷道围岩变形预测提供技术基础。

     

    Abstract: Coal main adit is susceptibility to external factors, so it is crucial to monitor and predict its deformation. Based on the application of fiber optic monitoring for adit deformation, A multi-step prediction model is proposed which is built with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) integrated with TCN-LSTM deep learning network for adit deformation. Firstly, the monitoring data containing noise is decomposed into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) components using the EEMD method. Then, the fuzzy entropy of each IMF component series is calculated, and effective IMF components are selected. Finally, the TCN network is used to extract long-term features from different effective component series, while the LSTM network captures nonlinear features. The prediction results of each component are combined. The multi-output strategy is adopted in the training process of the prediction model, and the output is the fiber optic monitoring value for multiple times in the future. Experimental results on different fiber optic grating sensors show that the EEMD combined with fuzzy entropy method can filter out more noise while retaining the roadway deformation information. Compared with existing methods, the proposed prediction method has a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99, and the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are reduced by 3.0%−10.0% and 5.0%−20.0% in single-step prediction, respectively, resulting in more accurate predictions. Under the multi-output strategy, the average R2 of this proposed method for three steps ahead is 0.95, and the RMSE and MAE values of the strain gauge are reduced by at least 75.0% and 31.5%. The RMSE and MAE values of the displacement meter were reduced by at least 50.0% and 66.7%, respectively, while the RMSE and MAE values of the pressure gauge were reduced by at least 85.7% and 62.3%. the proposed prediction method with multi-output strategy has the lowest error accumulation. The EEMD-TCN-LSTM multi-step prediction method for adit deformation provides a technical basis for predicting the deformation of roadway surrounding rock.

     

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