Research of the present situation and development trend of intelligent coal mine construction market
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摘要:
煤矿智能化建设市场现状及未来发展趋势是行业管理部门、煤炭生产企业、科技支撑企业、其他潜在企业等关注的对象，也是行业内资本投入、技术研发和人才培养的重要指导方向。构建基于生产要素、需求条件、支持性产业、企业战略以及行业机遇和政府支持政策的六维波特钻石模型，宏观分析煤矿智能化建设市场的竞争优势；以2013—2023年的煤矿数量、产能、采选业固定资产投资及智能化建设总投资、建设成效等历史数据为基础，选取数量指标、产能指标和投资指标等不同维度的数据，计算煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率并进行曲线拟合，根据煤炭企业规模集中度、煤炭产能分布集中度和煤炭企业属性集中度对拟合的曲线进一步修正；为进一步衡量煤矿智能化建设市场活力，以国家首批71处智能化示范煤矿为样本，预测2025—2035年煤矿智能化市场容量，在难以全面精准获得煤矿智能化全部子系统历年市场数据的情况下，利用SAC、SAM、SAP 3项产品市场统计数据对煤矿智能化市场分析及预测结果进行可靠性验证；根据政策导向、技术现状和建设实际，提出了煤矿智能化建设市场发展萌芽破土、培育试点、示范建设、全面建设和高级智能5个阶段，基于杰弗里摩尔鸿沟理论，分析了智能化建设各阶段特征及早期市场和主流市场特点，发掘了煤矿智能化建设市场鸿沟及其产生因素，给出跨越鸿沟的具体措施。结果表明：我国煤矿智能化建设市场具有强且持续的竞争力；2023年市场渗透率约为4.74%，预计至2026年渗透率将达10%，是社会资本投入黄金时期，可用较低投入撬动未来较高市场份额；煤矿智能化建设市场容量将于2025年突破
3200 亿元，2035年将累计达到万亿级；当前煤矿智能化建设处于早期市场和主流市场之间的鸿沟区，预计用2～3 a时间将完成鸿沟跨越。Abstract:The current situation and future development trend of the intelligent construction market in coal mines are the focus of attention for industry management departments, coal production enterprises, technology support enterprises, and other potential enterprises. It is also an important guiding direction for capital investment, technology research and development, and talent cultivation in the industry. Construct a six dimensional Porter diamond model based on production factors, demand conditions, supporting industries, enterprise strategies, industry opportunities, and government support policies to macroscopically analyze the competitive advantages of the coal mine intelligent construction market; Based on historical data such as the number of coal mines, production capacity, fixed assets investment in mining and dressing industry, total investment in intelligent construction, and construction results from 2013 to 2023, select data in different dimensions such as quantity indicators, production capacity indicators, and investment indicators, calculate the market penetration rate of intelligent construction of coal mines and perform curve fitting, and further modify the fitted curve according to the concentration of coal enterprise scale, concentration of coal production capacity distribution, and concentration of coal enterprise attributes; To further measure the market vitality of coal mine intelligent construction, taking the first batch of 71 intelligent demonstration coal mines in China as samples, the market capacity of coal mine intelligent construction from 2025 to 2035 is predicted. In the case where it is difficult to obtain comprehensive and accurate market data of all subsystems of coal mine intelligent construction over the years, SAC, SAM, and SAP product market statistical data are used to verify the reliability of coal mine intelligent market analysis and prediction results; Based on policy guidance, technological status, and actual construction, five stages of the development of the coal mine intelligent construction market have been proposed: budding, cultivating pilot projects, demonstration construction, comprehensive construction, and advanced intelligence. Based on the Jeffrey Moore divide theory, the characteristics of each stage of intelligent construction and the characteristics of early and mainstream markets have been analyzed, and the market gap and its factors in coal mine intelligent construction have been explored. Specific measures to bridge the gap have been proposed. China’s coal mine intelligent construction market has strong and sustained competitiveness; The market penetration rate is expected to reach 10% by 2026, with a market penetration rate of approximately 4.74% in 2023. This is a golden period for social capital investment, and lower investment can be used to leverage higher market share in the future; The market capacity for intelligent construction of coal mines is expected to exceed 320 billion yuan by 2025 and reach trillions of yuan by 2035; The current intelligent construction of coal mines is in a gap area between the early market and the mainstream market, and it is expected to cross the gap in 2−3 years.
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Keywords:
- intelligent coal mine /
- market penetration rate /
- market capacity /
- market period /
- market chasm
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图 2 2013—2023年煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率（基于数量指标）
Figure 2. Market penetration rate of coal mine intelligent construction from 2013 to 2023 (by quantitative index)
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图 3 2013—2023年煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率（基于产能指标）
Figure 3. Market penetration rate of coal mine intelligent construction from 2013 to 2023 (based on productivity index)
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图 4 2013—2023年煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率（基于投资指标）
Figure 4. Market penetration rate of coal mine intelligent construction from 2013 to 2023 (based on investment indicators)
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图 5 2013—2023年煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率及增长趋势拟合曲线
Figure 5. Fitting curve of market permeability and growth trend of intelligent coal mine construction from 2013 to 2023
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图 6 修正的煤矿智能化建设市场渗透率趋势拟合曲线
Figure 6. Modified fitting curve of permeability trend in coal mine intelligent construction market.
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图 7 煤矿智能化建设市场容量趋势
Figure 7. Market capacity trend of coal mine intelligent construction
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图 8 2018—2025年市场容量及发展预测
注：数据来源于格物致胜
Figure 8. Market capacity and development forecast from 2018 to 2025
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图 9 2018—2023年3项产品整体市场容量和天玛智控营业收入增长率
注：数据来源于格物致胜、天玛智控《招股说明书》、天地科技和天玛智控年度报告；天玛智控营业收入和整体市场容量均包含备件及运维服务
Figure 9. Overall market capacity of three products and revenue growth rate of Tianma Intelligent Control from 2018 to 2023
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图 10 煤矿智能化发展进程及生命周期对照
Figure 10. Comparison diagram of intelligent development process and life cycle of coal mine
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图 11 煤矿智能化建设市场进程
Figure 11. Market process diagram of intelligent coal mine construction
表 1 2013—2023年煤矿及智能化建设相关数据
Table 1 Relevant data of coal mine and intelligent construction from 2013 to 2023
年份 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 煤矿数量/处 12000 11000 10800 8000 6794 5800 5300 4700 4500 4400 4300 总产能/亿t 39.74 38.74 37.5 34.1 35.2 36.8 38.5 39 41.3 45.6 47.1 智能化煤矿
建设数量/处1 1 3 18 40 120 180 242 312 572 758 智能化产能/亿t 0.06 0.10 0.30 1.00 2.00 3.00 5.00 8.50 13.36 19.36 27.7 采选业固定资产
投资/亿元5263 4682 4008 3038 2648 2804 3633.98 3608.55 4009.09 4988 5591.55 智能化建设
累计总投资/亿元0.5 1.5 10 30 60 220 430 650 1000 1470 2000 智能化建设
年总投资/亿元0.5 1 8.5 20 30 160 210 220 350 470 530 
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表 2 早期和主流市场价值属性对比
Table 2 Comparison of early and mainstream market value attributes
基于产品的早期市场价值属性 基于系统的主流市场价值属性 很炫酷的产品（如早期的管控平台等）
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