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物元可拓理论对废弃矿井瓦斯资源开发潜力研究

Research on the potential of gas resource development in abandoned mines using matter element extension theory

  • 摘要: 基于国家碳达峰,碳中和的大背景下,为了精准研判废弃矿井采动稳定区瓦斯资源开发潜力和找出其影响开发潜力的关键因素,笔者构建了“精选−内联−互补−优化”(“精选”是指:首先初步选取大量的评价指标,然后通过德尔菲法和敏感性分析筛选初始指标,去除不符合要求的指标因素;“内联”是指:对筛选出的指标,采用DEMATEL-ISM进行内部关联性分析,判定关键指标;“互补”是指:首先采用FAHP和熵值法分别对指标进行定性和定量的赋权,然后采用博弈论对指标进行综合权重确定;“优化”是指:结合综合权重,采用物元可拓理论计算其关联度,判定废弃矿井瓦斯资源开发潜力等级)四位一体为理念的废弃矿井瓦斯资源开发潜力评价方法,最后与工程试验对比,验证评估模型的可行性。结果表明:煤层埋深、煤矿面积是判定废弃矿井瓦斯资源开发潜力的关键指标因素与DEMATEL-ISM模型评价一致;根据物元可拓模型计算的关联度为K3=0.0575,可以判定其开发潜力为“良好”,根据工程试验统计评估可知,13个可采煤层的瓦斯资源量为61.81×108 m3,潘一矿瓦斯资源规模较大,属于中型煤层气田,其开发潜力较大与物元可拓模型评价结论一致,符合实际情况,该模型为研究废弃矿井瓦斯资源开发潜力等级提供方向。

     

    Abstract: Based on the background of national carbon peak and carbon neutrality, in order to accurately judge the development potential of gas resources in the mining stability area of abandoned mines and find out the key factors affecting the development potential, the author constructs the ‘selection-inline-complementary-optimization’ (‘Selecting’ refers to: firstly, a large number of evaluation indexes are preliminarily selected, and then the initial indexes are screened by Delphi method and sensitivity analysis to remove the index factors that do not meet the requirements; 'Inline ' refers to: for the selected indicators, DEMATEL-ISM is used for internal correlation analysis to determine the key indicators; ‘Complementarity’ refers to: firstly, FAHP and entropy method are used to determine the qualitative and quantitative weights of the indicators, and then the game theory is used to determine the comprehensive weights of the indicators. ‘Optimization’ refers to a four-in-one evaluation method for the development potential of abandoned mine gas resources based on the concept of comprehensive weight, using matter-element extension theory to calculate its correlation degree, and determining the development potential level of abandoned mine gas resources. Finally, the feasibility of the evaluation model is verified by comparison with engineering tests. The results show that the buried depth of coal seam and the area of coal mine are the key index factors to determine the development potential of gas resources in abandoned mines, which are consistent with the evaluation of DEMATEL-ISM model. According to the correlation degree calculated by the matter-element extension model, K3 = 0.0575, it can be judged that its development potential is ‘good’. According to the statistical evaluation of engineering tests, the gas resources of 13 coal seams are 61.81 × 108 m3. The gas resources of Panyi Mine are large and belong to medium-sized coalbed methane fields. Its development potential is consistent with the evaluation conclusion of the matter-element extension model, which is in line with the actual situation. The model provides a direction for studying the development potential level of gas resources in abandoned mines.

     

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