Abstract:
Deep coalbed methane is a high-quality natural gas resource that has seen rapid exploration and development progress in recent years and holds an extremely promising future. The efficient development of deep coalbed methane has significant strategic and practical importance for China to successfully achieve energy transformation and development and support the “dual carbon” goals. The scientific and reasonable economic evaluation of exploration and development projects and investment decision-making are two crucial and urgent challenges in achieving the efficient development of deep coalbed methane. In light of the characteristics of deep coalbed methane resource development and economic evaluation, an evaluation method and indicators based on the discounted cash flow method are constructed and applied to the typical simulated development project A in Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin. The research results show that:This method is highly operational and can meet the investment decision-making needs of deep coalbed methane projects.Under the current technical and economic conditions, the simulated development project A in the Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin has good economic benefits and is technically and economically feasible.The single-factor sensitivity analysis indicates that price, output, investment and cost are the key factors influencing the economic viability of the project. The stress test analysis results under different combinations of two, three and four factors show that Project A has a strong multi-factor risk resistance capacity. Focusing on the two key risk factors of price and output, the typical scenario analysis results indicate that flexible market price policies, moderate differentiated fiscal subsidy policies, strengthening basic theoretical innovation and engineering technological innovation are crucial for addressing the key risks of the project and are indispensable supporting elements for the comprehensive and rapid development of deep coalbed methane in China at the present stage. At the same time, based on the practical experience of deep coalbed methane development in recent years and drawing on the exploration and development experience of shale gas in North America and China, the exploration and development process of deep coalbed methane is divided into four stages: area selection and evaluation, exploration evaluation, pilot test and development. The main tasks and goals, decision points, corresponding projects, economic evaluation methods and project decision-making processes of each stage are clearly defined. This provides a strong reference for the standardized and efficient implementation of deep coalbed methane exploration and development projects and the promotion of high-quality development of China's deep coalbed methane industry.