Abstract:
To address the challenge of accurate precursor charge signal warning for gas-bearing coal rock dynamic disasters, a comprehensive warning method based on multi-indicator charge signals for gas-bearing coal rock failure is proposed. Based on historical charge signal data, this study extracts three precursor indicators with significant warning effects that can sensitively reflect the catastrophic failure of gas-bearing coal rock, including instantaneous pulse charge quantity, permutation entropy, and waveform factor. Through loading experiments on gas-bearing coal rock under different lateral pressure ratios, combined with physical experiments and signal analysis, the evolution law of charge signals during gas-bearing coal rock fracture is thoroughly investigated. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Genetic Algorithm, the weight values of the "three indicators" and the critical values of six optimal characteristic indicators are determined. These optimal indicators are used as input parameters for the comprehensive warning method to construct a comprehensive warning model for gas-bearing coal rock failure. To verify the effectiveness of this method, charge signals from historical laboratory data of gas-bearing coal rock failure are used for validation analysis. The results show that through the analysis of charge signal data from gas-bearing coal rock samples from Xinzhouyao Mine of Datong Coal Industry Group, the weights of the charge signal precursor sensitive indicators—instantaneous pulse charge quantity, permutation entropy, and waveform factor—are determined to be 0.633, 0.106, and 0.261, respectively. Six key indicators from the “three indicators” are selected as input parameters for the comprehensive warning method: permutation entropy 0.5 s deviation value, permutation entropy deviation anomaly duration, waveform factor 0.5 s deviation value, waveform factor deviation anomaly frequency, instantaneous pulse charge quantity cumulative slope, and instantaneous pulse charge quantity numerical change rate, with corresponding critical values of 0.24, 0.05, 0.35, 3.00, 0.014, and 3.32, respectively. The application of these indicators and critical values to historical experimental data for verification shows that the comprehensive warning method can predict the relative time of gas-bearing coal rock failure up to 73.882 s in advance, significantly improving warning accuracy and applicability. This method can timely predict the risk level of gas-bearing coal rock failure, providing an important reference for safe mining operations.