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含瓦斯煤岩破裂电荷多指标前兆预警方法

Multi-indicator precursor warning method for gas-bearing coal rock fracture based on charge signals

  • 摘要: 为解决瓦斯煤岩动力灾害前兆电荷信号预警准确性难题,提出了一种基于电荷信号多指标的含瓦斯煤岩破坏综合预警方法。基于历史电荷信号数据本文提取3个预警效果显著且能敏感反映含瓦斯煤岩灾变破坏的前兆指标,包括瞬时脉冲电荷量、排列熵和波形因数。通过开展不同侧压比条件下含瓦斯煤岩加载试验,结合物理试验和信号分析,深入研究了含瓦斯煤岩破裂电荷演化规律,基于层次分析方法和遗传算法,确定了“三指标”的权重值和6个优选特征指标的临界值,将这些优选指标作为综合预警方法的输入参数,构建了含瓦斯煤岩破坏综合预警模型。为验证该方法的有效性,采用实验室历史数据中的含瓦斯煤岩破坏电荷信号进行验证分析。结果表明:通过对大同煤业集团忻州窑矿含瓦斯煤岩试样电荷信号数据的分析,确定了电荷信号前兆敏感指标瞬时脉冲电荷量、排列熵、波形因数的权重分别为0.633、0.106和0.261;筛选出了“三指标”中6个关键指标作为综合预警方法的输入参数:排列熵0.5 s偏差值、排列熵偏差异常持续时间、波形因数0.5 s偏差值、波形因数偏差异常频次、瞬时脉冲电荷量累积量斜率和瞬时脉冲电荷量数值变化率,其对应的临界值分别为0.24、0.05、0.35、3.00、0.014和3.32。将上述指标和临界值应用于历史试验数据进行验证,验证结果表明该综合预警方法对含瓦斯煤岩破坏的相对时间预测最高可达73.882 s,显著提升了预警准确性和适用性。该方法能够及时预测含瓦斯煤岩破坏风险程度,为矿井安全开采提供了重要参考。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge of accurate precursor charge signal warning for gas-bearing coal rock dynamic disasters, a comprehensive warning method based on multi-indicator charge signals for gas-bearing coal rock failure is proposed. Based on historical charge signal data, this study extracts three precursor indicators with significant warning effects that can sensitively reflect the catastrophic failure of gas-bearing coal rock, including instantaneous pulse charge quantity, permutation entropy, and waveform factor. Through loading experiments on gas-bearing coal rock under different lateral pressure ratios, combined with physical experiments and signal analysis, the evolution law of charge signals during gas-bearing coal rock fracture is thoroughly investigated. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Genetic Algorithm, the weight values of the "three indicators" and the critical values of six optimal characteristic indicators are determined. These optimal indicators are used as input parameters for the comprehensive warning method to construct a comprehensive warning model for gas-bearing coal rock failure. To verify the effectiveness of this method, charge signals from historical laboratory data of gas-bearing coal rock failure are used for validation analysis. The results show that through the analysis of charge signal data from gas-bearing coal rock samples from Xinzhouyao Mine of Datong Coal Industry Group, the weights of the charge signal precursor sensitive indicators—instantaneous pulse charge quantity, permutation entropy, and waveform factor—are determined to be 0.633, 0.106, and 0.261, respectively. Six key indicators from the “three indicators” are selected as input parameters for the comprehensive warning method: permutation entropy 0.5 s deviation value, permutation entropy deviation anomaly duration, waveform factor 0.5 s deviation value, waveform factor deviation anomaly frequency, instantaneous pulse charge quantity cumulative slope, and instantaneous pulse charge quantity numerical change rate, with corresponding critical values of 0.24, 0.05, 0.35, 3.00, 0.014, and 3.32, respectively. The application of these indicators and critical values to historical experimental data for verification shows that the comprehensive warning method can predict the relative time of gas-bearing coal rock failure up to 73.882 s in advance, significantly improving warning accuracy and applicability. This method can timely predict the risk level of gas-bearing coal rock failure, providing an important reference for safe mining operations.

     

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