Abstract: Thermal power generation, as a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions in China’s energy system, plays a pivotal role in realizing the national “dual carbon” objectives. In order to predict the trend of carbon emission in the thermal power industry in the future and explore the feasible path of carbon emission reduction, the carbon emission data of thermal power in China from 1995 to 2022 were calculated and analyzed by using the energy carbon emission accounting method. Combined with the LMDI model, STIRPAT model and ridge regression method, the core driving factors of thermal power carbon emissions were systematically identified, and a multi-scenario forecasting model was constructed. In the scenario parameter setting, relevant policies and planning documents from the past five years in China were fully referenced, and three typical development scenarios—business-as-usual, green transition, and carbon-intensive—were established based on the technological evolution pathway of the thermal power industry, in order to ensure the realism and policy relevance of the simulation results. Findings suggest that economic expansion remains the dominant factor driving emission growth. In contrast, technological progress and structural adjustments—such as reduced energy intensity, changes in the thermal power share, improvements in coal-fired efficiency, and declining emission factors—have contributed to curbing emissions. Scenario analysis indicates that China’s thermal power carbon emissions are likely to reach their peak around 2025. Under a green transition scenario, a more substantial reduction in emissions is projected during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods. This pathway demonstrates the greatest potential for meeting carbon targets, with emissions projected to decline by approximately 10% by 2035. Based on these results, the study recommends accelerating clean energy integration, diversifying the power mix, and improving both coal power efficiency and energy utilization as critical steps toward a low-carbon transformation of the thermal power sector.