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煤与瓦斯突出智能双重预防机制研究进展与展望

Research progress and prospects of intelligent dual prevention mechanism for coal and gas outburst

  • 摘要: 矿山智能化建设推动煤矿灾害防控向智能化发展,深部开采条件下煤与瓦斯突出灾害防控成为亟需解决的关键难题。然而,现有煤与瓦斯突出防控体系存在体系完整性不足、防控链条断裂和智能化水平有限等问题,难以实现风险的超前精准防控。本文旨在构建煤与瓦斯突出智能双重预防机制的理论框架,厘清其研究边界,系统梳理其研究进展,提出研究展望,为构建煤与瓦斯突出智能防控体系提供理论支撑。基于双重预防机制理论,以煤与瓦斯突出灾害作为研究对象,采用文献分析与体系归纳相结合的方法,从风险识别、评估、预测、预警与管控五个环节出发,对煤与瓦斯突出智能双重预防机制进行了系统梳理与总结,归纳了现有研究的现状、贡献和问题,并提出了未来研究重点与方向。结果表明:煤与瓦斯突出智能双重预防机制涵盖风险识别、评估、预测、预警和管控以及隐患分类分级、排查、治理与验收环节,形成了灾害防控的系统框架。在研究贡献方面,智能识别实现了非结构化数据的自动提取与多因素耦合分析,智能评估构建了多属性决策与机器学习融合的双驱动范式,智能预测推动了从单点感知向多源融合的演进,智能预警建立了“实时评估—超前预测—前兆监测”三层体系,智能管控推动了系统集成、协同智能和闭环管控发展。在研究问题方面,当前智能识别体系尚不成熟,智能评估模型碎片化且泛化能力不足,智能预测存在数据融合浅层与实时部署难题,智能预警系统性探索不足,智能管控闭环效能受限,导致全链条防控协同性较弱。未来研究应构建煤与瓦斯突出智能双重预防体系,深化识别中的多源数据融合、指标定性-定量转化和统一实时与周期风险,发展评估中的多层级融合框架与小样本、迁移学习等方法,突破预测中的机理−数据融合与模型部署难题,完善预警中的动态预警规则、多设备联动与管控响应机制,建立管控的自适应、协同智能与闭环机制,最终实现煤与瓦斯突出灾害的全链条闭环智能防控。

     

    Abstract: The construction of intelligent mines is driving the transformation of coal mine disaster prevention and control toward intelligent development, under which the prevention and control of coal and gas outburst disasters has become a critical challenge that urgently needs to be addressed in deep mining conditions. However, the existing coal and gas outburst prevention and control system still has problems such as insufficient system integrity, broken prevention and control chains, and limited level of intelligence, making it difficult to achieve advanced and precise risk prevention and control. This article aims to construct a theoretical framework for the intelligent dual prevention mechanism of coal and gas outbursts, clarify its research boundaries, systematically review its research progress, thereby providing theoretical support for the establishment of an intelligent coal and gas outburst prevention and control system. This article is based on the theory of dual prevention mechanism, taking coal and gas outburst disasters as the research object. Using a combination of literature analysis and systematic induction, it systematically sorts out and summarizes the intelligent dual prevention mechanism for coal and gas outbursts from five aspects: risk identification, assessment, prediction, warning and control. It summarizes the current research status, contributions and problems, and proposes future research priorities and directions. The results indicate that: The intelligent dual prevention mechanism for coal and gas outbursts covers risk identification, assessment, prediction, warning and control, as well as hazard classification and grading, investigation, treatment and acceptance, forming a systematic framework for disaster prevention and control. In terms of research contributions, intelligent identification has achieved automatic extraction of unstructured data and multi factor coupling analysis, intelligent assessment has constructed a dual driving paradigm of multi-attribute decision-making and machine learning fusion, intelligent prediction has promoted the evolution from single point perception to multi-source fusion, intelligent warning has established a three-layer system of “real-time assessment-advanced prediction-precursor monitoring”, and intelligent control has promoted the development of system integration, collaborative intelligence, and closed-loop control. In terms of research issues, the current intelligent identification system is not yet mature, the intelligent assessment model is fragmented and lacks generalization ability, the intelligent prediction has shallow data fusion and real-time deployment difficulties, the systematic exploration of intelligent warning is insufficient, the closed-loop efficiency of intelligent control is limited, resulting in weak coordination of the entire chain for prevention and control. Future research should establish an intelligent dual prevention system for coal and gas outbursts, deepen the fusion of multi-source data, qualitative quantitative transformation of indicators, and unified real-time and periodic risks in identification, develop multi-level fusion frameworks and small sample, transfer learning methods in assessment, break through the difficulties of mechanism data fusion and model deployment in prediction, improve dynamic warning rules, multi device linkage and control response mechanisms in early warning, establish adaptive, collaborative intelligence and closed-loop mechanisms for control, and ultimately achieve full chain closed-loop intelligent prevention and control of coal and gas outburst disasters.

     

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