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基于数据驱动的综采矿压分析预测研究进展及展望

Research progress and prospects of data-driven analysis and prediction of working face mining pressure

  • 摘要: 针对综采工作面矿压显现的强非线性、非平稳和时空耦合等复杂特征,以及传统力学模型在预测精度与工程适应性方面的局限性,系统综述了数据驱动的矿压分析与预测研究进展,深入分析了当前面临的关键问题,并对未来发展方向进行展望。首先,简述煤矿井下采场覆岩运移假说,以及基于工作面上覆围岩运移理论的矿压分布规律与预测研究现状;阐述了数据驱动矿压分析的基本原理,包括多源数据感知需求、数据预处理方法及核心分析算法框架,明确了基于分析算法提取矿压关键参数的技术路径。在此基础上,重点总结了工作面矿压预测模型的研究进展,对比分析了各类机器学习模型在短期矿压状态预测中的适用性,并深入探讨了深度学习模型在长序列动态特征提取及复杂时空建模方面的技术优势;同时,系统归纳了多模型融合的研究思路,包括统计方法融合、智能算法参数自适应优化、时空注意力机制引入以及多源集成学习等关键技术路径。结合工程实践,进一步探讨了面向超长工作面的分区分级动态预测方法,并分析了融合微震监测与分布式光纤传感技术,实现由近场响应向远场机理感知拓展的前沿应用方向。最后,给出了当前数据驱动矿压分析与预测研究中的重点与难点,指出了现有研究存在的局限,并依托人工智能与大模型技术的快速发展背景,提出了数据驱动矿压预测的关键技术路径,以期为智能化开采过程中的工作面矿压显现数据分析及预测技术发展提供新的思路。

     

    Abstract: Traditional mechanical models exhibit limited prediction accuracy and engineering adaptability due to the strong nonlinearity, non-stationarity, and spatiotemporal coupling of strata behavior in fully-mechanized working faces. To address these limitations, the research progress on data-driven analysis and prediction of strata behavior is reviewed. The key challenges currently faced are analyzed, and future development directions are envisioned. First, the hypotheses of overlying strata movement in underground coal mines are outlined. The current research status of strata pressure distribution laws and predictions based on these theories is described. The basic principles of data-driven strata behavior analysis are elaborated. These principles encompass multi-source data sensing requirements, data preprocessing methods, and core analytical algorithm frameworks. Consequently, the technical path for extracting key strata parameters using analytical algorithms is clarified. On this basis, the research progress of prediction models is summarized. The applicability of various machine learning models in short-term state prediction is comparatively analyzed. The technical advantages of deep learning models in extracting long-sequence dynamic features and complex spatiotemporal modeling are discussed. Furthermore, the research ideas regarding multi-model fusion are summarized. These include key technical paths such as statistical method fusion, adaptive parameter optimization, spatiotemporal attention mechanisms, and multi-source ensemble learning. Combined with engineering practices, zonal and hierarchical dynamic prediction methods for ultra-long working faces are explored. In addition, the application of integrating microseismic monitoring and distributed fiber-optic sensing technologies is analyzed. This integration expands perception from near-field responses to far-field mechanisms. Finally, the key challenges and difficulties in current data-driven prediction research are analyzed, and the limitations of existing studies are identified. In the context of the rapid development of artificial intelligence and large-scale model technologies, key development paths for data-driven strata behavior prediction are proposed.

     

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