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矸石山自燃危险源三维空间识别与综合风险量化评估

Three-dimensional spatial identification and risk quantitative assessment of spontaneous combustion hazard sources in coal gangue dumps

  • 摘要: 煤矸石自燃严重威胁了矸石山生态系统修复和资源安全开发利用,准确辨识其危险源的空间展布和风险量化评估自燃风险程度是防治矸石山自燃的关键。为解决这一关键科学问题,构建了基于多源信息、技术融合的自燃空间识别方法与风险评价体系,研究以抚顺矿区西舍场自燃矸石山为例,构建了矸石山3D-Kriging空间插值温度场三维重构模型,解析自燃危险源的空间展布规律和规模。此外,为分级、分区管控矸石自燃风险,建立了“自燃发展−有害气体−自燃灾害”的三源风险评价体系,提出了矸石自燃危险性综合评价( Comprehensive Evaluation,CE)模型。其中,为客观评价自燃发展风险和趋势,引入卫星遥感时序监测数据,构建发展趋势函数 \mu ,有效克服矸石自燃历史监测数据缺失的问题;为评价大气环境污染风险和环境影响,提出混合有害气体浓度结合毒性危害指数确定混合有害气体权重的方法;为客观评估自燃灾害威胁,建立以经济损失、人员伤亡为评价指标的评价方法。结果表明:研究区矸石山的自燃危险源主要分布在场区南翼边坡附近,其中地温值≥90℃的自燃煤矸石体积为49 753.4 m3;3D-Kriging空间插值的预测精度MAE、RMSE和R2分别为2.01 ℃、2.49 ℃和0.91,证明该方法能够精确定位自燃危险源的空间位置和规模。此外,通过CRITIC法计算了研究区“三源”子目标的权重分别为0.335、0.069和0.596,表明自燃灾害危害程度风险在该矸石山CE模型中的影响作用最大,合理的土地利用规划部署能够显著降低矸石自燃危险性等级。研究实现了矸石山自燃危险源“真三维”空间识别,并建立了定量“多源”风险评估体系,以期为矸石山生态修复与资源安全利用决策提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract: The spontaneous combustion of coal gangue poses a serious threat to the ecological restoration of gangue dumps and the safe utilization of resources. Accurately identifying the spatial distribution of combustion hazards and quantitatively assessing spontaneous combustion risk levels are critical for effective prevention and control. To address this critical scientific issue, a self-ignition spatial identification method and risk assessment system has been established based on the integration of multi-source information and technological fusion. The spontaneously combusting gangue dump in the Xishechang area of Fushun Mining District is examined. A 3D-Kriging spatial interpolation temperature field reconstruction model was developed to analyze the spatial distribution patterns and scale of combustion hazard sources. To enable graded and zoned control of spontaneous combustion risks, a three-source risk evaluation system (spontaneous combustion development – harmful gases – spontaneous combustion disaster) was established, along with a comprehensive evaluation (CE) model for gangue fire hazards. In this model, satellite remote sensing time-series monitoring data were introduced to objectively evaluate the development risk and trend of spontaneous combustion, and a development trend function \mu was constructed, effectively overcoming the problem of missing historical monitoring data on coal gangue combustion. To assess the atmospheric pollution risk and environmental impact, a method was proposed to determine the weight of mixed harmful gases by combining the concentration of mixed harmful gases with the toxicity hazard index. To objectively assess the threat of spontaneous combustion disasters, an evaluation method was established using economic loss and casualties as evaluation indicators. The results show that the spontaneous combustion hazard sources in the gangue dump of the study area are mainly distributed near the south slope of the site, with 49 753.4 m3 of gangue exceeding 90 °C. The prediction accuracy of the 3D-Kriging spatial interpolation, with MAE, RMSE, and R2 values of 2.01 ℃, 2.49 ℃, and 0.91, respectively, proves that this method can accurately locate the spatial position and scale of spontaneous combustion hazard sources. In addition, the CRITIC method was used to calculate the weights of the “three-source” sub-goals in the study area, which were 0.335, 0.069, and 0.596, respectively, indicating that the risk of spontaneous combustion disaster has the greatest impact in the CE model of this gangue dump. A reasonable land use planning deployment for the gangue dump can significantly reduce the hazard level of coal gangue spontaneous combustion. By applying the proposed methodology, a true three-dimensional spatial identification of spontaneous combustion hazards in gangue dumps is achieved, and a quantitative multi-source risk assessment framework is established, thereby providing theoretical support for ecological restoration and informed decision-making regarding the safe utilization of resources.

     

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