高级检索

黄陇侏罗纪煤田导水裂隙带高度预测研究

Research on prediction of the height of water-conducting fracture zone in Huanglong Jurassic Coalfield

  • 摘要: 为获得适用于黄陇煤田厚及特厚煤层开采条件下的导水裂隙带高度预测模型,以黄陇侏罗纪煤田为研究区域,以38组导水裂隙带高度实测数据为依据,综合考虑开采厚度、工作面斜长、煤层埋深、覆岩类型、开采方法5个因素对导水裂隙带高度的影响,基于数据驱动构建了适用于黄陇煤田导水裂隙带高度预测的多元非线性回归模型和遗传算法(GA)优化的BP神经网络(GA-BP)模型,并将2种模型应用于孟村矿401101工作面导水裂隙带高度预测。研究结果表明:导水裂隙带高度受多种因素影响,回归模型拟合系数从仅考虑开采厚度的0.52,提高到考虑综合多因素的0.82,模型预测精度随着考虑影响因素数量增多而提高;从数据驱动角度得出黄陇煤田导水裂隙带高度影响因素权重值排序为:开采厚度>工作面斜长>覆岩类型>煤层埋深>开采方法,开采厚度和工作面斜长是其主控影响因素,在开采过程中需加以控制,从而达到煤层顶板水害防治的目的。模型应用结果表明,多元非线性回归模型的最大相对误差为−3.67%,而GA-BP神经网络模型最大相对误差仅为−1.95%,2种预测模型的相对误差均小于5%,其精度能够满足工程实践要求,对于预测精度要求较高时,可选择GA-BP神经网络预测模型。研究成果可为黄陇煤田厚及特厚煤层条件下导水裂隙带高度研究提供一定依据和参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to obtain the prediction model of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone applicable to the mining conditions of thick and extra-thick coal seams in Huanglong coalfield, the Jurassic coalfield in Huanglong is taken as the study area, based on 38 groups of measured data of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone, and the impact of mining thickness, slope length of the working face, buried depth of the coal seam, overburden type, and mining method on the height of the water-conducting fracture zone is comprehensively considered, a multivariate nonlinear regression model and a BP neural network model optimized by genetic algorithm for the prediction of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone in Huanglong coalfield are constructed based on the data-driven method, and the two models are applied to the prediction of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone in the 401101 working face of Mengcun Mine. The results show that: The height of the hydraulic fracture zone is affected by many factors. The fitting coefficient of the regression model is increased from 0.52 of the mining thickness to 0.82 of the comprehensive multiple factors. From the perspective of data-driven, it is concluded that the weight value of the factors affecting the height of the water-conducting fracture zone in Huanglong Coalfield is ranked as follows: mining thickness > slope length of the working face > overburden type > buried depth of the coal seam > mining method. The mining thickness and the slope length of the working face are the main control factors affecting the height of the water-conducting fracture zone, which should be controlled during the mining process to achieve the purpose of preventing and controlling the water hazard of the coal seam roof.The application results of the model show that the maximum relative error of the multivariate nonlinear regression model is −3.67%, while the maximum relative error of the GA-BP neural network model is only −1.95%. The relative errors of both prediction models are less than 5%, which can meet the requirements of engineering practice. When the requirements for prediction accuracy are high, the GA-BP neural network prediction model can be selected. The research results can provide a certain basis and reference for the study of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone under the conditions of thick and extra-thick coal seams in Huanglong Coal Field.

     

/

返回文章
返回