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李树刚, 马莉, 潘少波, 石新莉. 基于循环神经网络的煤矿工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型研究[J]. 煤炭科学技术, 2020, 48(1).
引用本文: 李树刚, 马莉, 潘少波, 石新莉. 基于循环神经网络的煤矿工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型研究[J]. 煤炭科学技术, 2020, 48(1).
LI Shugang, MA Li, PAN Shaobo, SHI Xinli. Research on prediction model of gas concentration based on RNN in coal mining face[J]. COAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2020, 48(1).
Citation: LI Shugang, MA Li, PAN Shaobo, SHI Xinli. Research on prediction model of gas concentration based on RNN in coal mining face[J]. COAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2020, 48(1).

基于循环神经网络的煤矿工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型研究

Research on prediction model of gas concentration based on RNN in coal mining face

  • 摘要: 瓦斯灾害制约着煤矿安全生产的发展水平,瓦斯治理是高瓦斯煤矿开采工程中的重要环节,有效预测出下一时间段瓦斯浓度并做出合理的安全防护措施,可为煤矿瓦斯治理决策提供一定的参考依据。利用循环神经网络适合处理连续时间序列样本的特性,构建了一种基于循环神经网络的煤矿工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型。该模型以宽泛策略为原则初步确定预测模型网络结构参数,选取数据量更大、时间跨度更长的瓦斯浓度时间序列为训练样本。首先采用邻近均值法和插值法处理训练样本中的异常值和缺失值,同时采用最大最小值标准化法对数据进行归一化处理,其次以均方误差和运行时间为评价指标,采用自适应矩估计优化器优化模型权重,选取修正线性为激活函数,隐藏层中加入丢弃层,通过不断调节步长、网络层数等参数,最终得到最优的循环神经网络瓦斯预测模型。研究结果表明:相比于反向传播神经网络预测模型和双向循环神经网络预测模型,基于循环神经网络的煤矿工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型的训练误差降低至0.003,预测结果误差降低至0.006,具有更高的预测准确度;同时,预测误差波动范围在0.001~0.024,具有更好的稳定性和鲁棒性。基于循环神经网络的工作面瓦斯浓度预测模型具有更高的准确度、稳定性和鲁棒性,可有效预测出下一时间段瓦斯浓度的变化趋势,从而提前做出合理的防护措施,为煤矿安全生产提供一定的参考意见。

     

    Abstract: Gas hazards restrict the development level of coal mine safety production. Gas control is an important part of high gas coal mine mining. Effective prediction of gas concentration in the next period and making reasonable safety protection measures can provide certain reference basis for decision-making of coal mine gas control. This paper builds a prediction model of gas concentration in coal mine working face based on recurrent neural network (RNN) to process continuous time series samples. The model preliminarily determines the network structure parameters of the prediction model based on the broad strategy, and selects the gas concentration time series with larger data volume and longer time span as the training samples. Firstly, the outliers and missing values in training samples are processed by proximity mean method and interpolation method. At the same time, MinMaxScala method is used to normalize the data. Secondly, MSE and running time are used as evaluation indexes, Adam optimizer is used to optimize the weight of the model, Relu is selected as activation function, and Dropout layer is added to the hidden layer. By adjusting the parameters of batch size and network layers, the optimal RNN gas prediction model is finally obtained. The results show that compared with BP neural network prediction model and Bidirection RNN prediction model, the training error of gas concentration prediction model based on RNN is reduced to 0.003, the prediction error is reduced to 0.006, and the prediction error fluctuation range is 0.001~0.024. The results indicate that the RNN gas prediction model has better accuracy, stability and robustness. The model can effectively predict the trend of gas concentration in the next period. Therefore, reasonable protection measures can be taken in advance to ensure coal mine safety production.

     

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