Abstract: In order to improve the predicted surface subsidence accuracy of the probability integration method under the mining in thick and loose layer, to show th e slow convergence at the boundary of the subsidence basin, based on the theory of the probability integration method, a new prediction model was provided.The mode I had considered the influences of the loose layer thickness and a new parameter of the loose layer influence coefficient was introduced.In combination with a case verif ication of No.1212 (3) coal mining face in Panbei Mine of Huainan Mining Area, the study results showed that the new prediction model would be higher predicted accur acy than the probability integration model and the ftting relative error was decreased from 8% to 6%. The influence coefficient of the loose layer was positively related t 0 the main influence radius and the relationship between the coefficient and the radius was clear and the ftting effect was excellent.