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川南筠连区块煤层三维含气量属性精细建模

Improved modeling of 3D gas content attributes ofCBM in Junlian Region of southern Sichuan

  • 摘要: 在地表形态和构造起伏较大的川南筠连区块,采用常规储层属性建模方法进行煤层气三维含气量建模存在预测不准的问题,为提高含气量三维模型精度,利用灰色关联与多元回归分析方法建立了含气量预测模型,考虑每个网格的实际埋深,提出适应该区块的三维含气量建模方法。结果表明:川南筠连区块含气量的关联的因素由强到弱依次为水分、最大镜质组反射率、埋深、灰分、固定碳;经共线性检验,由水分、最大镜质组反射率、埋深、灰分建立的含气量预测模型较好,拟合相关系数R2=0.701,在99%的显著性水平下显著;该三维含气量计算模型综合考虑了地表形态和地下构造对实际埋深的影响,更接近实际情况;较大埋深区域的计算含气量比常规属性建模方法的数值高,同时改进的含气量建模结果比常规建模结果更贴近实际生产情况。

     

    Abstract: In the Junlian Region of southern Sichuan with large surface morphology and tectonic fluctuations, the conventional reservoir property modeling method has been used to predict the three-dimensional gas content of coalbed methane. In order to improve the accuracy of 3D model for gas content, the grey correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were combined to build a gas content prediction model, considering the actual buried depth of each grid, a three-dimensional gas content modeling method suitable for the region was proposed. The results show that the correlation factors of gas content in Junian Region of southern Sichuan were sorted in descending order by relevancy: water, maximum vitrinite reflectivity, buried depth, ash and fixed carbon. The co-linearity test shows that gas content prediction model established by water, maximum reflectivity, buried depth and ash is rather accurate. The fitting correlation coefficient R2=0.701 is significant at 99% significance level. This three-dimensional gas content calculation model took into account the surface morphology and underground structure. The influence of the buried depth was closer to the actual situation. The calculated gas content of the larger deep-buried area was higher than the value from the conventional property modeling method, and the improved gas content modeling result was closer to the actual production situation than the conventional modeling result.

     

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