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基于变权模糊理论的残煤连采可行性评价研究

Study on feasibility evaluation of continuous mining of residual coal based on variable weight fuzzy theory

  • 摘要: 为解决目前采用连续采煤机开采残采煤区时只能定性确定可行性的问题,基于国内短壁连采现有工艺和装备,充分考虑残采煤区所处的开采和地质条件,探索和分析了残采煤区连采的可行性数学评价方法和准则。根据模糊数学提出了层次分析法、变权理论的综合评价方法,从地质构造条件、煤层赋存、开采安全要素、块段不规则要素等4个方面内容进行系统分析,构建了以残采煤区和连采技术特点为基础的可行性评价指标体系(19个因素),并参照国内煤炭行业规范标准或者专家打分法对各个因素进行量化处理,得到了不同指标的合理取值范围,建立了指标评判矩阵并确定指标初始权重。根据实际情况调整初始权重,调高 “差”因子权重,同时调低“好”因子权重,使之更符合实际,最终考虑最大评判指标的贡献,采用最大隶属度作为评定准则,确定残采煤区连采可行性。通过盛平煤矿、张家峁煤矿、南关煤矿3个案例评价验证了评价方法合理性和准确性。研究表明:此方法基于煤矿现场提出残采煤区可行性影响因素,赋予指标的权重合理、计算方法得当,是一种有效的定量判定残采煤区是否适用连采技术的数学评价方法,为小矿井先期决策引进连采技术具有重要的参考意义。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem that can only be qualitatively determined when the continuous machine is used in residual mining areas,based on the existing domestic short-wall continuous mining technology and continuous mining equipment, on the basis of fully considering the residual mining areas of mining and geological conditions, the exploration and analysis of the residual coal mining areas adopt the feasibility of the extraction of mathematics evaluation method and criteria.According to fuzzy mathematics, a comprehensive evaluation method of analytic hierarchy process and variable weight theory was proposed. The system analyzed the four aspects of geological structure conditions, coal seam occurrence, mining safety factors, and block irregular factors. A feasibility evaluation index system (19 factors) was constructed based on the characteristics of residual coal mining areas and continuous mining technology, and quantified each factor with reference to the domestic coal industry norms and standards or expert scoring method to obtain different indicators. In this way, the reasonable value ranges of different indicators were obtained, the indicator evaluation matrix was established and the initial weight of the indicators was determined. The initial weight was adjusted according to the actual situation, the weight of “poor” factor was increased, and the weight of “good” factor was reduced so as to make it more realistic. Finally, the contribution of the maximum evaluation index was taken into consideration,and the maximum membership degree was used as the evaluation criterion to determine the feasibility of continuous mining in residual coal area.The rationality and accuracy of the evaluation method were verified through three different case evaluations of Shengping Coal Mine, Zhangjiamao Coal Mine and Nanguan Coal Mine.The study shows that this method is an effective mathematical evaluation method for quantitatively determining the suitability of continuous mining technology in residual coal areas based on the feasibility influencing factors of residual coal areas proposed by the coal mine site, with reasonable weight given to indexes and appropriate calculation method, and it has important reference significance for small mines to make decisions on introducing continuous mining technology.

     

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