Study on burst risk assessment of coal seam in folded area based on pre-mining stress back analysis

In order to scientifically evaluate the impact risk of steeply inclined extra-thick coal seam in folded area and provide theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of rock burst, a numerical model including folds is established in this paper based on the prevention and control of rock burst in south mining area of Wudong Coal Mine. With the help of multiple linear regression and CASRock engineering software, the back analysis of ground stress field of steeply-inclined extra-thick coal seam in folded area of Wudong Mine is carried out. Taking B1+2 coal seam as the research object, the stress data in coal seam, roof and floor are extracted, the stress-cover depth variation curve is plotted, the distribution characteristics of pre-mining stress field are explored, and the risk assessment index related to pre-mining stress is determined. According to the back analysis data of in-situ stress and previous research results, the evaluation indexes of burst risk are determined from the aspects of geological factors and mining conditions. The static weights of 7 geological factors and 5 mining conditions are obtained by Analytic Hierarchy Process. By substituting the static weight into the dynamic weight calculation formula and combining with the traditional comprehensive index method, the risk assessment of B1+2 panel at +500 m level in the south area of Wudong Mine is carried out. According to the rockburst risk classification table, the burst risk of this panel is medium, which is consistent with the conclusion of the geological report, and the rationality of the method was verified. This method is used to estimate the burst risk of coal seam with different depths. Control group is chosen, using the traditional comprehensive risk index method to evaluate the burst of the same area, the results show that the method to obtain the risk ratings were higher than the traditional methods, approach of this paper highlights the risk factors in the evaluation index, overcoming the other indicators evaluation error caused by the interference factors.