Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of land use and carbon storage in high groundwater level mining area

Mining activities and urbanisation in high dive mining areas can lead to significant changes in land use types, which in turn affect the carbon sequestration capacity of mining areas. Based on the land use data of Panxie mining area from 2002 to 2021, and used the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model to predict land use changes in 2028 under two scenarios: natural development and ecological conservation, using mining, socio-economic and climatic data as drivers, and then The historical carbon stocks in the Panshet mine area from 2002 to 2021 and the future carbon stocks in 2028 under different scenarios were calculated by combining the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the carbon stocks in the Panxie mine area were analysed. The spatial and temporal variability of carbon stocks in the Panxie mine was also analysed. The results show that: ① from 2002 to 2021, land use changes in the Panxai mining area show a continuous decrease in arable land and a continuous increase in wetland and building land, with a decrease of 147.93 km² in arable land and an increase of 71.01 km² and 75.76 km² in wetland and building land, respectively. during this period, the carbon stock in the Panxai mining area decreases from 1.62×10⁵ t, a decrease of 3.83%, with the fastest decrease in carbon reserves from 2018 to 2021. ② The predicted results show that the land use changes in the study area under both scenarios in 2028 are a continuous increase in wetlands and building land, and a continuous decrease in arable land. However, compared to the natural development scenario, the ecological conservation scenario protects and increases the area of arable land in the mine area, while the growth of wetlands and building land slows down. Compared with 2021, the carbon stock in the natural development scenario decreases by 0.74×10⁵ t and the ecological conservation scenario decreases by 0.53×10⁵ t. The results of the study indicate that the decrease in arable land due to sinking water and the expansion of construction land is the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock due to the influence of coal mining subsidence and urban development, and that the adoption of ecological conservation measures can slow down the decrease in carbon stock to a certain extent. Ecological conservation measures can slow down the decline of carbon stocks to a certain extent.