Study on prediction of mine water inflow volume based on ARIMA product seasonal model

In order to improve a prediction accuracy of the mine water inflow volume in a coal mine, based on the ARIMA seasonal product model, a new prediction method of the mine water inflow volume was provided. The ordinary difference and the seasonal difference were applied to ensure the mine water inflow volume of the ti me series stabilized method. A suitable product seasonal model ARIMA( 2, 1, 1)( 1, 1, 1) 12 was established with the model order, parameter estimation, hypothesis te st and other process. The model was applied to predict each month water inflow volume in the year of 2015 in a mine and the predicted results obtained were compared and analyzed with the actual measured data. The study results showed that there a max error of 3. 43% between the predicted results and the actual data. The min error was only 0.77%. The predicted results could be well fitted with actual measured data. The predicted effect was good and could well meet the actual requirements of the mine. The product seasonal model verified could make the accurate prediction of the mine water inflow volume and could provide a new idea to predict the mine water i nflow volume from the coal mine production and to prevent and control of the water disaster.