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矿井涌水量预测方法的改进及结果准确性判定

Improved methods for prediction of mine water inflow and determination of accuracy of results

  • 摘要: 针对当前矿井涌水量(包括正常涌水量、最大涌水量)、疏放水量概念认识模糊、界定不清,涌水量预测结果与实际水量差距较大、难以精细化以及预测结果准确性判定存在歧义的问题,综合当前各类规范以及相关研究成果,提出了矿井涌水量的3重属性特征:统计属性、水文属性和生产属性。在此基础之上,探讨了矿井涌水量的基本定义,将矿井涌水量概化为充水水源与充水通道综合作用的结果,重点结合充水通道的动态变化特征以及含水层与采动空间之间的补给关系,阐述了“大井法”预测过程中的精细水量构成以及计算方法,提出了利用“同频率放大法”改进水文地质比拟法,得到涌水量预测动态曲线的过程;将时间序列分析和水文地质比拟相结合提高预测步长(即预测周期),增强时间序列分析法的适用性。比较了矿井正常涌水量、最大涌水量与预测正常涌水量、最大涌水量在各类规范、文献中的定义与煤矿防治水实践过程中的统计差异,总结了对涌水量预测结果认识存在分歧、忽视了涌水量预测的技术条件是当前矿井涌水量预测结果准确性判定存在的主要问题;论述了矿井涌水量预测结果准确性判定的绝对差值法和相对差值法2类基本判定方法,并以涌水量预测的主要功能为导向,提出了涌水量准确性判定的经济型、安全型、偏离型的分级标准,通过对比分析说明了2类方法的优缺点;提出在矿井涌水量准确性判断的实际应用过程中应当综结合2类方法进行综合判定的技术思路。通过统一技术背景,可实现矿井涌水量的预测、实际涌水量的统计、预测结果准确性判定在技术上的全过程闭环,进一步完善矿井水害防治的技术体系。

     

    Abstract: Being mindful of issues such as ambiguity in how to define and determine mine water inflow (including normal water inflow and maximum water inflow) and releasing water, the large gap between the predicted results and measured ones for mine water inflow and difficulty for refining results plus lack of consensus on the accuracy of predicted values, after reviewing currently available specifications and research results, we present triple attribute characteristics for mine water inflow: statistical attribute, hydrological attribute and production attribute, on the basis of which the basic definition of mine water inflow was discussed; The mine water inflow is generalized as the result of the joint action of the water filling source and the water filling channel, with special attention on the dynamic characteristics of the water filling channel and the recharge relationship between the aquifer and the mining space. This work analyzes the fine composition of water inflow and relevant calculation methods under “large well method”, and propose to employ “same frequency magnification method” to improve hydrogeological analogy method and obtain the predicted dynamic curve of water inflow; By combining time series analysis with hydrogeological analogy, the prediction step size (prediction periodic) increased and the applicability of time series analysis was enhanced. By reviewing the statistical differences existing in all specifications, literature definitions and the flood control practice in actual mines for the normal water inflow, the maximum water inflow and the predicted values for both normal water inflow, the maximum water inflow, it is concluded that there is lack of consensus on understanding the prediction results of water inflow and the present main issue posed in determining the accuracy in prediction of water inflow is neglecting the technical conditions .In this paper, we discussed two main methods for determining the accuracy of mine water inflow prediction, the “absolute difference method” and the “relative difference method”, proposed standards for how to classify water inflow prediction results into economic type, safety type and deviation type depending on main functions of mine water inflow prediction, the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods are discussed by comparison, and we concluded that the two methods should be combined in practical application for a accurate prediction of mine water inflow. By unifying the technical backgrounds, we could achieve the technical mutual verification on mine water inflow prediction, real water inflow statistics and determining the accuracy of predicted results, hence improve the technical system for mine water disaster prevention and control.

     

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