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矿井瓦斯浓度Lagrange-ARIMA实时预测模型研究

Study on Lagrange-ARIMA real-time prediction model of mine gas concentration

  • 摘要: 矿井瓦斯浓度监测是瓦斯事故最直接有效的防控手段之一,为提高监测信息的利用效率,提出了一种瓦斯浓度Lagrange-ARIMA实时预测模型。首先应用拉伊达准则实现瓦斯浓度监测缺失值构建,其次采用滑动Lagrange插值方法进行缺失值预测,最后基于自回归差分移动平均模型(ARIMA)序贯学习,依据L1范数最小化原则,确定出Lagrange-ARIMA序贯学习窗口合适尺度,进行瓦斯浓度实时预测。实例仿真显示:Lagrange-ARIMA实时预测模型处理瓦斯浓度时间序列缺失值平均误差为1.397%,当序贯学习窗口尺度为85时,预测的瓦斯浓度序列平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.0118。相比传统ARIMA静态学习模型,建立的Lagrange-ARIMA模型学习窗口尺度降低了90.3%,建模复杂度显著降低,MAE降低了16.3%,预测精度能满足现场需求。

     

    Abstract: Mine gas concentration monitoring is one of the most direct and effective means of prevention and control of gas accidents,in order to improve the utilization efficiency of monitoring information,a real-time gas concentration prediction model based on Lagrange-ARIMA is proposed.Firstly,PauTa criterion is applied to construct missing values of gas concentration monitoring.Secondly,sliding Lagrange interpolation method is used to predict missing values.Finally,based on ARIMA sequential learning and L1 norm minimization principle,Lagrange-ARIMA sequential learning window is determined to realize real-time prediction of gas concentration values.The simulation results show that the average error of Lagrange-ARIMA real-time prediction model is 1.397% when dealing with the missing value of gas concentration time series.When the width of sequential learning window is 85,the mean absolute error of predicted gas concentration series is 0.011 8.Compared with the traditional ARIMA static learning model,the width of learning window of Lagrange-ARIMA model is reduced by 90.3%,and the modeling complexity is significantly reduced.The mean absolute error is reduced by 16.3%,and the prediction accuracy can meet requirements in the field.

     

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