高级检索

回采工作面递进式煤厚动态预测试验研究

Experimental study of coal thickness progressive prediction in working face

  • 摘要: 针对煤矿井下回采工作面的已知煤厚点主要分布在回风巷、运输巷与开切眼构成的“U”型巷道上,煤厚数据点分布疏密不均,除了克里格空间估值技术外,常用的钻孔煤层厚度插值方法难以适应的问题,基于煤厚变化的准确预测对煤矿回采工作面高效开采的重要性,采用克里格空间估值技术,以“U”型巷道实际控制的煤厚“静态数据”为基础,构建煤厚预测的初始模型,开展第一阶段的煤厚预测;在回采工作面递进式推采过程中,不断融入回采新揭露的煤厚“动态数据”,建立煤厚预测的优化模型,对未采区段开展递进式煤厚预测。选取某矿完成回采的S1工作面,以其“U”巷道控制的306个煤厚点作为已知数据,以回采揭露的204个煤厚点为验证点,每50 m作为一个推采阶段,将S1工作面分为29个推采阶段,进行递进式煤厚预测的精度测试与误差分析。结果表明:①〖BP(〗=1\*GB3〖BP)〗仅采用3条“U”型巷道已知煤厚点的静态数据建立预测模型,预测误差绝对值小于0.10、0.50、1.00 m的煤厚点数量,分别占25.98%、74.50%和90.73%;②〖BP(〗=2\*GB3〖BP)〗综合利用3条U型巷道与工作面递进式回采揭露的煤厚信息,构建煤厚动态预测模型,预测误差绝对值小于0.10、0.50、1.00 m的煤厚点数量,分别达到48.01%、85.51%和94.86%。可见,回采工作面递进式煤厚动态预测方法,可以显著提高煤厚预测的精度。

     

    Abstract: The known coal thickness points are mainly distributed in “U” type roadway for coal mine working face, such as tail gate, head gate and starting cut. Because of the coal thickness points’ uneven density, the commonly used interpolation method of seam thickness is difficult to be used except the Kriging space valuation techniques. Due to accurate prediction of coal thickness variation is very important for efficient mining of coal mining face,based on the “U” type’s coal thickness “static data” to establish the initial model, it can be done for coal thickness prediction in first stage; with the development of working face, the initial model can be updated and optimized because more and more new coal thickness points is added during the mining stage, so the progressive prediction of coal thickness can be done for the unmined area.The No.S1 working face is selected as an example which has 306 known coal thickness points in “U” type roadway and 204 coal thickness points exposed by mining as the verification points. Taking 50 m as a mining stage, S1 working face can be divided into 29 mining stage. The result of precision test and error analysis for coal thickness progressive prediction include:①On the basis of the known points in “U” type roadway to establish a static prediction model, when the coal thickness absolute prediction error is less than 0.10、0.50、1.00 m, the rates of measurement points in working face are 25.98%, 74.50%, 90.73% in S1 working face.②For the progressive prediction model by collaborative coal thickness data from “U” type roadway and new data by mining, when the coal thickness absolute prediction error is less than 0.10、0.50、1.00 m, the percent of measurement points in working face are 48.01%, 85.51%, 94.86% respectively. It had shown that the coal thickness prediction accuracy was greatly improved by progressive prediction.

     

/

返回文章
返回