基于变异函数的地表沉陷动态预计模型研究
Study on surface subsidence dynamic prediction model based on variogram
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摘要: 矿产资源开采引起的地表沉陷，危及人类生命和财产安全，研究地表沉陷随时间变化的动态过程对防治采空区地表建筑物变形破坏具有重要的指导意义。为了准确描述因开采引起的地表随时间变化的动态过程，基于变异函数理论，建立动态预计模型，并对其进行理论分析和试验验证。结合概率积分法相关理论知识推导出地表下沉时间，将其代入变异函数的变程中，为使模型描述地表点随时间变化的下沉量、下沉速度、下沉加速度符合地表下沉规律，对变异函数模型取不同的指数，并结合4个矿区下沉数据进行对比分析。研究结果表明：当模型分子指数H=4时，该模型预计下沉时间与概率积分法计算出的下沉时间接近，且分母指数K与地表点下沉时间呈正比关系，因此得出模型的最佳指数为H=4，K为待拟合值，进而提出了一种基于变异函数的地表沉陷动态预计模型；通过与2个矿区工作面实测数据对比分析得出：该模型预计地表点下沉量的均方误差分别为0.027、0.026、0.039 m，相对中误差分别为1.69%、1.62%、2.44%，最大下沉速度误差分别为4.7%、6.1%、8.1%，下沉速度均方误差分别为0.001 4、0.001 0、0.001 4 m/d，相对中误差分别为6.16%、4.46%、6.36%；预计采空区地表随时间变化的下沉过程与实测基本符合； 结果证实该基于变异函数的地表沉陷动态预计模型在描述地表点下沉量、下沉速度、下沉加速度，具有实用价值。Abstract: Surface subsidence caused by mining of mineral resources endangers the safety of human life and property. Studying the dynamic process of surface subsidence changes with time is of great guiding significance for preventing and controlling the deformation and destruction of surface structures in goafs. In order to accurately describe the dynamic process of surface change with time caused by mining，theoretical analysis and experimental verification about mining subsidence are carried out based on the variogram theory.Based on the theoretical knowledge of probability integral method to deduce the time of surface subsidence which was put into the range of the variogram. In order to make the model conformed to the law of surface subsidence when described the subsidence，velcity and acceleration of the surface point changed with time，a model using different indices was combined with the subsidence data of the four mining areas to conduct a comparative analysis. It was found that when the model molecular index H was 4，the expected sinking time was the closest to the time calculated by probability integral method，and the denominator index K was proportional to the sinking time，so the best index of the model was:H=4，K was the value to be fitted and then a dynamic prediction model based on variogram is proposed. The result is obtained through comparison and analysis with the measured data of the working faces in the two mining areas，it is concluded that the mean square errors of the predicted subsidence quantity of the model are 0.027，0.026 and 0.039 m; the relative median errors are 1.69%，1.62% and 2.44%，and the errors of the maximum subsidence speed are 4.7%，6.1% and 8.1%;the mean square errors of the surface sinking velocity are 0.001 4,0.001 0 and 0.001 4 m/d，respetively，the relative median errors are 6.16%，4.46%，6.36%，respetively; the subsidence process changes with time of goaf surface is basically consistent with the measured subsidence process. The experimental results show that model conforms to the law of surface subsidence when it was used to describe the subsidence,velcity and acceleration and surface subsidence，and has practical value.
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Keywords:
- variogram /
- mining activity /
- time of surface subsidence /
- dynamic predictions /
- surface subsidence
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期刊类型引用(6)
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百度学术
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