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基于MCMC算法的露天矿典型设备故障预测方法研究

Research on fault prediction method of typical equipment in open-pit mine based on MCMC Algorithm

  • 摘要: 大型设备是露天矿开采工艺系统的重要组成部分,设备的有效利用直接决定着露天矿的生产效率。为解决露天矿典型设备的故障预测问题,降低设备的故障率和维修成本,提出了一种基于马尔科夫蒙特卡罗方法的露天矿典型设备故障发生时间预测算法,该算法利用马尔科夫蒙特卡罗方法(MCMC)对设备故障数据进行抽样估计,获得设备故障发生次数所对应的齐次泊松过程的参数λ,然后根据浴盆曲线性质,不断对λ进行修正和拟合,确定设备当前状态下故障发生次数的泊松分布参数的值λc,再利用齐次泊松过程中随机点的点间间距是相互独立的指数分布随机变量序列的性质,将λc的倒数作为指数分布参数的估计值,确定设备故障发生时间间隔所服从的指数分布,进而利用指数分布预测设备故障发生时间。研究结果表明:设备故障发生次数所服从的泊松分布参数随时间动态变化;设备故障维修时长随设备使用年限的增长而逐渐变长(设备发生中型及以上故障次数增多);所提出的算法经修正尺度简缩因子验证,具有合理性和有效性,能够用于对露天矿典型设备的故障预测。数值模拟结果显示:在外部环境不发生明显变化时,该算法能够精确、有效的预测露天矿典型设备的故障发生时间和故障类别,不仅能为企业科学制定设备预防性维修计划提供依据,而且能为智慧露天矿建设提供有效的基础决策数据。

     

    Abstract: Large equipment is an important part of the open-pit mining process system, and the effective use of equipment directly determines the production efficiency of open-pit mines. In order to solve the problem of fault prediction of typical equipment in open-pit mine and reduce the failure rate and maintenance cost of equipment, a fault prediction algorithm for typical equipment of open pit mine based on Markov Monte Carlo method is proposed. The algorithm uses the Markov Monte Carlo method to estimate the equipment fault data, and obtains the parameter λ of the homogeneous Poisson process corresponding to the number of equipment failures; Then according to the nature of the bathtub curve, the λ is continuously corrected and fitted to determine the value of the Poisson distribution parameter λc of the number of failures in the current state of the device; Reusing the inter-point spacing of random points in the homogeneous Poisson process is a property of a series of exponentially distributed random variables that are independent of each other, The reciprocal of λc is used as the estimated value of the exponential distribution parameter to determine the exponential distribution obeyed by the equipment fault occurrence time interval, and last use the exponential distribution to predict the equipment failure occurrence time. The results show that: The Poisson distribution parameters obeyed by the number of equipment failures change dynamically with time; The maintenance time of equipment failure increases with the increase of service life of equipment (medium-sized faults in equipment and increased number of medium-sized faults); The algorithm proposed in this paper is verified by CSRF and is reasonable and effective and can be used to predict the failure of typical equipment in open-pit mines. Numerical simulation results show: when the external environment does not change significantly, the algorithm can accurately and effectively predict the fault occurrence time and fault category of typical equipment in open pit mines. The research results can not only provide a basis for the enterprise scientific development of equipment preventive maintenance plans, but also provide effective basic decision data for the construction of intelligent open-pit mines.

     

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